Signage for voters looking to vote in-person at the Wellington E. Webb Municipal Office Building on March 5, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. Fifteen states and one U.S. territory hold their primary elections on Super Tuesday, awarding more delegates than any other day in the presidential nominating calendar. (Photo by Marc Piscotty/Getty Images)
It’s Thursday, 48 hours after the primary election, and I can’t decide whether Montana’s result were an example of “meh” or moderation.
“Meh,” because looking up and down the ballots, it’s hard to find too many upsets or surprises. Yeah, Greg Gianforte is running against Ryan Busse for governor; sure, Tim Sheehy will take on Sen. Jon Tester; and Republicans did well in Congressional races. Not much changed on Tuesday, in that respect.
Primary election results didn’t demonstrate some larger “blue” wave of Democrats ready to crash upon Montana government, but it’s also equally hard to see another Republican supermajority in the Legislature. That’s a fancy way of saying it appears that Montanans are reclaiming some of our history by returning to a more moderate brand of politics.
If Republicans were looking to send a message to Gov. Greg Gianforte as a referendum on his first term in office, will it make any difference on his campaign or future goals? After all, a freshman lawmaker not well known outside the Flathead region was able to siphon one in every four Republican votes. And ultimately, will those voters registering dissatisfaction with the administration on a number of issues cross party lines to vote against Gianforte, or will partisan loyalty win out?
The message for the Democrats sounds oddly similar: Rising star Ryan Busse has built a strong coalition of support, especially when it comes to challenging a well-known politician like Gianforte, but voting returns show fellow Democrat Jim Hunt taking nearly 30% from Busse, especially when Hunt did very little noticeable campaigning, proving once again that one of the most powerful elements in liberal Montana circles may be its circular firing squad that remains unable to coalesce around a candidate.
We also learned the power of a brand name and how working to build that name eventually pays off.
In both of Montana’s Congressional races, familiar names powered through. In the east, Troy Downing, whose solid tenure as the state’s auditor has helped position him for Congress, bested eight other candidates, many of whom also had a degree of name recognition, including former Congressman Denny Rehberg, who showed about the same passion for campaigning as he did for floundering fast-food restaurants.
And culture warrior and word-salad iron chef Elsie Arntzen may have been the biggest loser in the Montana primary results as she finished a distant fourth in the Republican race for the eastern Congressional district, despite spending heavily on campaigning. In terms of value for dollar, she saw virtually no return. Remember, she was the first Republican to hold the position of Superintendent of Public Instruction since Ed Argenbright back in the 1980s, and she won two terms there, which should have made her a formidable challenge to Downing. Meanwhile, political neophyte Stacy Zinn performed much better than expected in that crowded field.
But it would be hard to understate two keys to Downing’s victory: First, he has worked multiple elections to establish name recognition with the voters. More importantly, despite the circus-like atmosphere of state government and wedge issues, Downing’s tenure at the auditor’s office has been scandal free, responsive and well functioning, possibly suggesting an appetite for competent, transparent leadership over the performative theatrical politics that has seeped down to the local level.
That brand name power doesn’t just happen for Republicans. Monica Tranel, the Democratic challenger who will face Rep. Ryan Zinke, polled strongly, and her performance on Tuesday night did little to likely dissuade national pundits who believe the district is winnable for Dems. But Tranel is so much more than that: In addition to being a formidable candidate who knows Montana issues well, she has demonstrated for the rest of her party the value of building a brand.
For those of us covering politics in the Treasure State, it seems like every two years, there is an entirely new crop of Democrats who follow a well-worn path: No one knows who they are, they’re underfunded and outhustled, and then they get the holy snot knocked out of them, only to crawl back home, rarely, if ever, to be heard from again.
That’s a shame because those same candidates quit just as it is becoming interesting. The learning curve is steep for politicians who have to learn how to debate, make small talk at fundraisers and, in their spare time, become policy wonks. Many simply give up because it’s not fun to work that hard, and then face headlines that declare you’ve lost.
Yet inasmuch as politics is a popularity contest, many of these credible, solid candidates don’t stick around long enough to have their names stick around in memory. Tranel is the epitome of a hard-worker who almost started campaigning as soon as the last race ended with her narrow defeat. Her ability to go back, knock those same doors, and remind people that even in a Republican-leaning state, there’s still room for a Democrat, especially against a Republican with as much baggage as Zinke, is a playbook worthy of emulation.
The question isn’t whether history will repeat itself in November. On one hand, a bunch of old, rich white conservative men may continue to hold power. On the other, Montana’s voters may demand moderation and a return to more centrist politics.
The question is: Which version of history is due for a repeat performance?
The post Tuesday gave no clue as to which Montana history will repeat itself in November appeared first on Daily Montanan.
